From the beginning I have been skeptical, opposed and outraged about the corona hysteria.
When it broke in China my immediate reaction was that it was another Virus Scare (e.g. Swine, Bird, etc.). I predicted that it would be talked about on the news, sorta hyped, and that it would have no lasting impact on anything.
Eat crow.
In my defense, virtually all politicians and investors, pundits and “experts” were in complete agreement. And no one, and I mean no one, saw this coming.
When Trump banned Europe and the market began to sell I was surprised not by the selling, but its timing. I didn’t foresee this as the Black Swan that would derail the market. After the panic was on I predicted that the Fed would lower rates to zero with minor QE at best as markets sold off 15% or so and that would be that.
Eat crow.
I believed that the lockdowns would be relatively short term (over by Memorial Day) because Americans loved liberty and that the unpopularity of it would bring about the change. This would bring about the illusive V-shaped recovery and that the predictions of a prolonged economic recession were premature.
Eat crow.
After Memorial Day, it sank in that the States and populations of the Western World were willing to tolerate an inordinate amount of State intervention and the corresponding economic pain in order to combat the virus.
But I did get one thing right.
I predicted that this was not the Big One and that Austrians should be leery about saying so and that new all time highs were still coming. However, I thought this would come about because Fed intervention and a quick snapback in the economy. I got the Fed intervention driving markets higher right – although I underestimated the intervention – and missed on the quick comeback of a wounded but still growing economy, albeit at a noticeably lower rate.